It Is What It Is ...

I've been engaged in a fascinating debate this week on Jay Hanson's WarSocialism discussion list (see www.dieoff.org). The result of the discussion is downright depressing, and can be summed up in a few points:

• Humans are at the end of the modern age and are about to face a massive dieoff, which will likely be caused by nuclear war, an influenza pandemic, or ecological ruin. Not to mention, there is going to be mass chaos after the cheap oil is gone.
  
  
• Neither humans nor evolution have any kind of end plan or goal. As the saying goes, "it is what it is."
  
  
• The idea that human destiny is to colonize the Universe is not looking good. There are many factors that make interplanetary space travel basically impossible.

This leaves me with the conclusion that we humans are a one-in-a-trillion freak occurrence in the Universe, and we are about to go. We will likely go in an unpleasant way — extreme violence, starvation, or disease.

My own assessment is that losing jobs will just be the beginning. Before long we will be engaging in cannibalism again, like our chimp relatives. Also, I learned that a third of chimp males never make it to adulthood because they are murdered by chimp gangs, and that we share about 95% of the same genes as the chimp, so extreme violence is embedded in us as well.

This is sounding very, very grim, and tonight I'm about to give up all hope. But I know I won't, and I don't want to sell out my principles for food — I'm not sure how long I'll be able to hold out on that one.

The bottom line is human beings are a very sick, dysfunctional, and violent species. It's so sad because I see a lot of good in us too.

Space flight to other planets is impossible:

From Tom —

I recently saw a bumper sticker with the following slogan; "Earth First. We'll strip mine the other planets later." This is the perfect slogan for all the space cadets out there who believe the star trek, star wars science fiction fantasies Hollywood has filled our heads with throughout this soon to be fading, electronic age. Maybe we alpha males can even get lucky and score with some hot, green alien chicks while were propagating our benevolent expansion of the heavens as an added bonus. Captain Kirk sure seemed to get lucky a lot.

I find talk of colonizing other planets in other solar systems amusing because it's a perfect example of the arrogant, anthropocentric hubris that characterizes human beings which is what got us into this predicament of overshoot after in the first place. Colonization of other planets is practically impossible for at least a few logical reasons such as follow. The list is by no means comprehensive.

1. We are the product of billions of years of fine-tuned, ecosystem evolution and exploitation and our very existence is completely contingent upon the exact and delicate balance of atmospheric, climatic and terrestrial conditions (aka capital) that have yet to be verified on any other planet we could hope to reach before the consequences of our species overshoot overtake us.

2. As arrogant and capable as we are, the human body can't survive years in a gravity-free environment because our muscles, heart and bones are subject to radical atrophy. Any planet that we could potentially exploit is probably light years away and the laws of physics preclude such contingency. Don't bother talking to me about short-cuts through "worm holes" because no such thing has ever been verified. Worm holes are a science fiction hypothesis at best.

3. A significant feature of overshoot and collapse is the exponential conversion of capital into a waste stream leaving a degraded (read trashed) ecosystem behind with less viable resources for future generations. Translation: We won't have the energy nor the money available to get off the ground into space to export our benevolent intentions to other parts of the universe. In a nut shell, this is why space programs no longer practically exists for space exploration. Space exploration is past peak. We went to the moon, it was sterile and mainly useless and we'll probably never get any further.

Indeed flight was once thought to be impossible but the laws of aerodynamics permitted such after all (as long as the contingencies of capital, technology and energy are available). However, the laws of physics and specifically the laws of thermodynamics predict Homosapiens is destined (doomed?) to existence and eventual extinction here on good old planet Earth. It seems it's the only planet we'll ever really get to strip mine after all.

We Can't Evolve Our Way Out Of Our Problems

From Scott —

Several points to make about the likelihood of short term human evolution here. One is that evolutionary changes in primates and apes do not happen in just a few generations. It requires hundreds or even thousands of generations to evolve as a species. Humans have remained pretty much unchanged physically for over 100k years (not including the Neanderthals, which seem to have been a separate sub-species or population of humans that did not interbreed). Socially humans made a last significant change somewhere around 50k years ago into more or less what we are now. That is around 2,500 generations of humans since the last major distinctive change occured. If you want to put a stake in the ground for 'modern civilized humans' as the point of evolution that we made our last significant change (I do not believe this, this is just an example of scale) at about 12k years ago at the dawn of modern civilization, that is still over 500 generations of humans which remain basically unchanged from the dawn of history.

Another point is that as a population gets larger, like in humans today, the likelihood of a chance mutation or genetic alteration being passed on and affecting a large segment of the population (and hence leading to a genetic alteration and/or evolution) is pretty much drown out. The massively larger population of unchanged genes would be the ones that are passed on. 7 billion people are not going to evolve much, until/unless there are some abrupt environmental changes or pandemic that radically kills off large segments of the population.

Another factor that has risen from the human genome research is that humans have very similar genes to one another, as compared to our closest living relatives, the chimpanzees. As I recall, both types of chimps share something like 97% of chimp specific genetic traits, whereas humans are more like 99% similar in human genetic traits. This is not to be confused with the fact that humans and chimps share somewhere between 95%-99% of functional genes. The point here is that humans have far less genetic variation within the species than other primates, so the chances of our evolving from our current population is far less.

Given the three reasons stated above, we are not likely to evolve in just a few generations when a lot of 'stuff' is very likely to hit the global fan. We can and may well adapt culturally, but not genetically. Also one genration does not make Europeans a bunch of sloths. Humans (as well as chimps it seems) are prone to war; take away resources and you will fight your neighbors for them. Given that our ancestors likely diverged from the chimpanzees sometime about 5-6 million years ago, the war gene is deep in our genetics (and probably over 6 millon years old). Chimps have been observed to go to war with and kill rival chimps, BTW. They are also prone to cannibalism. Sound familiar?

Evolution Has No Goal

From reductio0adabsurbum:

Sorry Todd, but you're wrong again. Evolution has no "goal", no direction, and no purpose. It just is. Natural selection in a nutshell: if the gene(s) that is(are) responsible for a particular phenotypic variation which endows the possessor of that(those) genes with a reproductive advantage, then that(those) gene(s) will be propagated into subsequent generations more so than will those genes that are less able to do so. That's pretty much it. You may feel dissatisfied by how inhuman and unfeeling that may be, but just because we as a species with our culture think we need purpose, (an illusion of) continuity that projects into the future, it doesn't mean that this need will be worked out into an objective reality. You can't overlay our own human frailties onto evolution or anything else outside our heads. Or at least you can't do that and expect that doing so will affect it in any objective way.

Stone Deaf, Blatant Denial

This is another great post of the WarSocialism discussion list, which I am reprinting with permission. It feels really good to find other people like myself, which assures me that most people are stone crazy, and a few people are not. Most people are just going down the river, having a great time, and not realizing, caring, or denying that there is a waterfall just ahead.

Goose

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Do either of you run into opposition that uses logic to argue against doing something to save the planet? Or do they just put their heads in the sand?

Jay

Answer from Scott:

Stone deaf, blatant denial, or they run screaming for their pastor or rabbi. Or they cover their ears and say, "LA LA LA LA LA LA..." Most say its BS, an Al Gore political scam, the oil companies and Arabs trying to jack up the price of oil, or some other standard reply. Same result when I talk about evolution, geology, mass extinction, peak oil, fisheries collapse, population overshoot (or just birth control) or global warming. Does not matter which.

Even the tree huggers are not willing to listen to, 'the end'. They point to the stars, and say that we are going to colonize other worlds. That gets me riled up, as I used to work in the aerospace industry (General Dynamics in San Diego) and the energy required to go to another habitable planet in another star system is well, more energy than is available in the galaxy at least. Never mind the time or technology to cross deep space, or finding a place like Earth. Forget Mars; proof that any Mars colony will fail is right here above the timberline on Mt Hood. Pleanty of sun, water, seasonal warm weather, oxygen, all the rest, and no large plant growth. Reason? No soil microbes survive up there. Now its all rock in summer... all the Cascade peaks are grey and brown in summer now. The 'glaciers' are all melting off in summer now.

Funny (and typical) story: my ex girlfriend (we still get along) and I were in South Carolina with her brother birding at the beach. We stumbled into a rare early type of salamander, and her brother started an interesting lecture about the species. There was a small crowd gathered around after 5 minutes, and the kids and parents were interested, until... he said the "e" word. Parents' hands instantly went over childrens' ears and they were shuffled off. We still are in the cultural and religious stone age.

Hope in the Face of Overwhelming Odds

Various items of randomness:

Quotes That Don't Make Me Feel Giddy

I'm on several discussion lists that cover global issues like population and peak oil. Here are a couple of memorable quotes from the last week or so:

"Things will certainly change when the widespread domestic violence begins (probably a few years away). However, it may not be the kind of political change that anyone wants." — Jay

"As homo superstitious — dominated by his/her reptilian brain — is in massive numerical overshoot already, the only steady state likely is disaster. Humans will not reduce breeding nor consumption due to rational persuasion."
— Steve

Goose Responds: I'm just not going to give up. Somewhere deep inside us there is the ability to save ourselves. The right solution, connection, or whatever, just hasn't been found yet, but it is there somewhere inside our collective soul. I will always have hope .... always!

Book Review Time



Title: Threshold: The Crisis of Western Culture

Author: Thom Hartmann



Summary (from Sacramento Bee): In "Threshold: The Crisis Of
 Western Culture," writer and Air America host Thom Hartmann argues that the
 deteriorating state of our planet, where the dynamics of environmental,
 economic, and population change are boiling over the limits within which society can function, is inevitably near at hand. In clear
 and impassioned prose, Hartmann busts the myths and ideologies of religious
 fundamentalism, capitalism run amok, male domination, and militarism that are
 draining our world of its natural and human resources and engendering the 
suffering of millions for the benefit of the few.



Goose Comment: The paragraph above says it all. It is the "myths and ideologies"
of our institutions that are destroying us. It's hard to get any meaningful change because of the pushback from people who are in power and who benefit from the status quo.

Olduvi Theory

This chart is quite interesting. Click on it to download a copy of the research paper. Basically, the Olduvai Theory states that the life expectancy of industrial civilization is approximately 100 years: circa 1930-2030.

Beautiful Un-Sunset

I was driving home the other day and just thought this scene of the clouds was pretty. It was taken in Hiram, GA. I call it an un-sunset because the beautiful sunset was actually behind me, but it gave everything an orange hue. The colors of the cloud are really vivid. As I was heading east in my car I just felt like I was in another world for a brief moment. Time sort of stood still.

Patriotic Moment

This scene just struck me as I was in a parking lot — the sun setting behind an American flag. I really felt patriotic and proud when I saw this. Despite all the many social and other problems this country has, I do love it very much. What I love about this country most is the idealism, which keeps our nation unified. We are not a people who are united because of race, religion, looks or anything else, but rather we are united by our ideas, and that is a fantastic step forward for the progression of the species. Most beautiful of all is democracy and freedom, and every day we should cherish it and NEVER take it for granted, however I do realize I'm starting to sound cliché.

Madmen, To the Death

It's 6:43 a.m. in the morning, and I'm sitting here confused, and thinking that life is a total trip.

First of all, homo superstitious is a real disappointment as a species. During this health care debate I've seen what a pathetic, ignorant, and stupid lot that Americans really are. Democracy is a beautiful thing, but before it can work the citizens must be civil and educated, and must be able to participate in enlightened debate. But what we have now is a bunch of talking heads on TV who fan the flames of partisanship for the sake of higher ratings .... and dumbed down America absorbs their crap like a sponge and then they attend town hall meetings where they disrespect their elected leaders and regurgitate the mindless crap of the Fox News hatemongers. Albeit, the political left has their share of hatemongers as well.

So, whatever happened to teamwork? Whatever happened to working together to solve a huge national problem, like finding a way to provide health care for millions of uninsured citizens? I have seen so much greed, hate, and ignorance in the last few weeks that I am totally disgusted. As Rodney King said, "Why can't we just get along?"

Now, I'm pretty sure that if we can't even solve important social problems without all the partisan rancor, how can we ever solve our massive environmental and geo-political problems? We can't, and we are screwed. We are a pathetic and disgusting species, yet every time I say that I run into some wonderful individual who reminds me that humanity is worth saving. We are the good and bad, all rolled into one.

Most offensive of all to me are the under-endowed pricks who are carrying guns to the health care meetings and rallies. Does that gun really make you feel like a man, maybe for the first time in your life? Doesn't anyone see a paradox between health care and guns? America the beautiful is actually a dysfunctional, gun-crazed society that talks about Christianity and love, but is full of violence and hate. Once the cheap energy runs out and our economy continues to deteriorate, more of these gun-toting yahoos will start cracking under the pressure and using their guns. If you don't believe me, pick up the daily newspaper — it's already happening all over the nation and we simply accept it, as the NRA works vigorously to pump more bullets and weapons into our demented society.

So, wrap yourself in your American flag, wave your gun and Bible, and scream about Hitler and Nazis and death panels all you want. Because YOU, the average Jane and John Doe American, are the source of all your angst. You have created this sick, narcissistic, double-standard society that is now consuming you and crushing you. You are the hypocrites, the Bible-thumping madmen, and the beer guzzling dittoheads. You and ONLY YOU are bringing this nation down into the abyss that it so rightfully deserves.

Goose

The Worst Is Yet To Be

This book review actually made me feel good, in some twisted way. I'm laughing ... I'm giddy. Not sure why.

GLOBAL CATASTROPHES AND TRENDS: The Next Fifty Years. Vaclav Smil. xii + 307 pp. The MIT Press, 2008. $29.95.

Prolific writer Vaclav Smil characterizes his latest book, Global Catastrophes and Trends, as “a multifaceted attempt to identify major factors that will shape the global future and to evaluate their probabilities and potential impacts.” Smil is fluent in many languages of the East and the West, and his voluminous citations demonstrate an impressive command of the literature. His two major themes are sudden, catastrophic events and unfolding trends that are catastrophic in their accumulative consequences.

The past 50 years have been exceptionally stable and unusually benign in global terms, Smil says, but this will change. The risks of what are, in his view, the two most likely cataclysmic future threats—nuclear war and pandemic influenza—can be substantially reduced, he believes. He does not see terrorism as a great risk. He also notes that mega-eruptions of volcanoes are quite rare and that the risk of a near-Earth object striking our planet is even more remote and can be handled. Instead, it is unfolding trends that worry him most and occasion the book’s most striking observations.

Energy is a key variable affecting many trends. Smil’s substantial discussion of this topic connects only loosely to the theme of catastrophe but well illustrates his debunking posture toward scary headlines and faddish “solutions.” He gives short shrift to renewable energy. For example, he considers “massive biomass energy schemes” that have been proposed recently to be “among the most regrettable examples of wishful thinking and ignorance of ecosystemic realities and necessities.” Conversion of enough farmland for the production of biofuels is out of the question, he says—we would starve. Wind power will be only a marginal and unreliable source of energy. As for energy from nuclear fusion, it is a mirage, on which the United States has spent a quarter of a billion dollars a year for the past 50 years. Large-scale expansion of nuclear power plants would face significant opposition, Smil says, because of concerns about safety and the lack of permanent waste-storage facilities. (He does, however, note with approval Edward Teller’s proposal to build a nuclear power plant completely underground with enough fuel to last its lifetime.) And he sees no realistic possibility of a hydrogen economy for many decades.

Read the complete review in American Scientist

Summary of article: We're screwed.

Human Growth Annihilates Species

I'm thrilled to learn that the Center for Biological Diversity is launching a new population campaign. Here is the opening paragraph from their announcement:

The human population is 6.8 billion and growing every second. The sheer force of our numbers is dominating the planet to such a degree that geologists are contemplating renaming our era the "Anthropocene": the epoch where the human species is the dominant factor affecting land, air, water, soil, and species. We now absorb 42 percent of the planet's entire terrestrial net primary productivity. We use 50 percent of all fresh water. We've transformed 50 percent of all land. We've changed the chemical composition of the whole biosphere and all the world's seas, bringing on global warming and ocean acidification.

And here is the intro to their new website:

The human population doubled from 1 to 2 billion between the years 1800 and 1930 — an unparalleled event in the planet’s history. No large mammal had ever grown to such numbers or commandeered so many resources. The impact on North America’s native species was devastating:

• Driven extinct by hunters, the last eastern woodland bison was seen in West Virginia in 1825.
• Undulata delissea, a Hawaiian plant, was driven extinct in 1865 by domestic cattle.
• The beautiful Falls-of-the-Ohio scurfpea, which existed on a single island, was drowned by U.S. Dam No. 41 in Kentucky in 1881.
• The Whiteline topminnow was last seen Alabama in 1899, its spring habitat repeatedly pumped dry by the growing human population.
• The Culebra parrot was hunted and collected to extinction in Puerto Rico by 1899.
• The Rocky Mountain grasshopper was purposefully driven extinct — a bounty was even placed on its head — by 1903.
• Merriam’s elk was hunted to extinction in Arizona in 1906.
• The Tennessee riffleshell disappeared in 1930 due to pollution and dams.

The human population doubled again by 1975, this time taking just 45 years. The rate of extinction also increased. Today’s population stands at 6.8 billion and, if it continues on course, will reach 8 billion in 2020 before leveling off at about 9 billion in 2050. If it doesn’t level off, the worldwide population could theoretically reach 15 billion by 2050, but that is unlikely due to the insurmountable economic, political, and ecological crises that would likely ensue.

I am clapping my hands and going "bravo, bravo." This could not have been better said.

The point is that it's NOT FAIR for humans to drive tens of thousands of other species into extinction. This is criminal. If a desperate young woman aborts her fetus, the conservative Christian types scream "MURDER," but they don't bat an eyelash when 30,000 species are slaughtered due to human activity. The Christian conservatives FREAK OUT when two guys hold hands in a park, but they don't think twice about the millions of animals obliterated in North America. Where is the justice? Here is the fairness?

Please visit their site: Center for Biological Diversity Overpopulation Campaign

The Goose